Minty Bets sits down with professional sports bettor Teddy Covers to go over his top ten handicapping tips and the challenges when betting sports during the COVID-19 pandemic.
1) Normal world: Markets set lines based on statistical profiles, betting profiles (previous support) home-field advantage & injuries. Situation/spot factored in modestly, maybe 5 things in total to pay attention too.
2) Key stats vary by sport. Football = turnover margin, yards per play gained on offense, ypp allowed on defense, red zone success rate, the pace of lay/drives per game. Baseball all about the starting pitching (Rays excepted): K/BB ratio, FIP/xFIP, line drive rate, gb/fb rate, etc. Metrics hate walks & fly balls. Hoops = points per possession (or 100 possessions) on offense/defense, (off & def efficiency) rebound rate, assist/Turnover ratio, pace ratings.
3) Lines are still going to be set the same way in the post-COVID betting world. COVID = injury uncertainty, very common for NBA bettors & plenty of MLB/FB bettors too. Not sure why casual bettors are very worried, no different than when LeBron tweaks his ankle in warmups and sits. In other words, it happens. NBA late-season 5+ point line moves not that uncommon with key injury info/stars sitting.
4) Market weakness in normal world = current form: when teams are consistently playing above or below their season-long statistical profile. If it happens early in the season, markets catch up quickly. If it happens 10 games into an NBA season (Bucks LY) or 50 games into an MLB season (Nats LY), there’s $$ to be made riding those teams for months on end. That won’t change in the COVID betting world.
5) Nuance is going to matter. Some teams win the first two games of a series, party Saturday Night & don’t worry too much about Sunday. Other teams more focused on the sweep. Markets don’t know the difference for that Sunday matinee. Situational bettors do.
6) COVID injury protection: Listing pitchers in MLB; can’t do that in other sports = you are going to be on the wrong side of some injury info eventually and inevitably. Options: bet closer to kickoff/tip-off or don’t freak out about it when you’re on the wrong side of some of these. Players will unexpectedly sit = advantage for deeper teams (hard to quantify how much a ‘deep’ team is worth ATS, but there is some edge).
7) The wiseguy $$ is still there. Individual bettors make have withdrawn some cash to make it through the downtimes. Syndicates? Well funded, not so much cash withdrawals to pay expenses. The markets will move; that’s what they do.
8) Who can adjust on the fly better? That’s what this will be all about. How to do neutral floors without fans affect pace? What about home-field advantage without fans or on neutral floors? The answers are, very clearly, ‘We don’t
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